IFK Goteborg 1–0 Skövde AIK: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Skövde AIK

2/25/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

IFK Goteborg50%

×Draw24%

Skövde AIK26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchSkövde AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.15

IFK Goteborg

1.70

Skövde AIK

1.15

IFK Goteborg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.85

creates per match

1.45

0.85

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.85

Skövde AIK

1.45

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

0.85

Skövde AIK

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Skövde AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

74%

IFK Goteborg or Skövde AIK

76%

Draw or Skövde AIK

50%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

27%

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

82%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

51%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

24%

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

68%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

32%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

66%

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Skövde AIK defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Skövde AIK attack 1.45 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

50%

level

24%

Skövde AIK scores more

26%

IFK Goteborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff