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IFK Goteborg vs Sirius — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sirius
Sirius
3/7/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg29%
×Draw23%
Sirius48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.36
Sirius
1.80

Sirius creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
Sirius
2.76

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
Sirius
0.88

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
52%
IFK Goteborg or Sirius
77%
Draw or Sirius
71%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
13%
Sirius wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
74%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
39%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
16%
Sirius 1+ goals
83%
Sirius 2+ goals
54%
Sirius 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
38%
Sirius (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Sirius away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Sirius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sirius attack 2.76 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
29%
level
23%
Sirius scores more
48%

Sirius at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Goteborg 1–1 Sirius

IFK Goteborg and Sirius drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.