Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Goteborg vs Landskrona BoIS — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
2/20/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg51%
×Draw23%
Landskrona BoIS25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.77
Landskrona BoIS
1.18

IFK Goteborg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
Landskrona BoIS
1.50

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
Landskrona BoIS
1.69

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
75%
IFK Goteborg or Landskrona BoIS
77%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
49%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
28%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
83%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
53%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
26%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
69%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
33%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
67%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.50 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
51%
level
23%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
25%

IFK Goteborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Goteborg 2–0 Landskrona BoIS

IFK Goteborg beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.