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IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Halmstad
Halmstad
R. Lundqvist 89'
Y. Agnero 78'
9/23/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 23Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

IFK Goteborg47%
×Draw25%
Halmstad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.57
Halmstad
1.17

IFK Goteborg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.41
Halmstad
1.02

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.32
Halmstad
1.74

finishing

IFK Goteborg-0.19scores less
Halmstad-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Halmstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
72%
IFK Goteborg or Halmstad
75%
Draw or Halmstad
53%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
24%
Halmstad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
79%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
46%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
21%
Halmstad 1+ goals
69%
Halmstad 2+ goals
33%
Halmstad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
62%
Halmstad (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 23 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.74 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.41 + Halmstad defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Halmstad attack 1.02 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
47%
level
25%
Halmstad scores more
28%

IFK Goteborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. RönningHalmstadHalmstad · G
8.2

Match Events

32'
Gísli Eyjólfsson
56'
Y. Agnero← G. Eyjólfsson
69'
L. Kåhed← L. Skjellerup
69'
O. Pettersson← G. Norlin
69'
R. Wiedesheim-Paul← B. Ingason
69'
N. Söderberg← J. Svedberg
78'
Y. Agnero↳ Villiam Granath
79'
A. Trondsen← O. Wendt
79'
E. Salomonsson← J. Bager
85'
R. Yeboah← P. Abraham
89'
R. Lundqvist

Possession

61%IFK

Shots

17IFK

Pass accuracy

52%IFK

Statistics

IFKHalmstad
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots14
2.12Expected Goals (xG)2.02
12Corners5
9Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots14
5On Target6
8Off Target6
4Blocked2
13Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
513Total Passes334
396Accurate Passes234
77%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad

IFK Goteborg and Halmstad drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on September 23, 2024.

Goals: Y. Agnero (78'), R. Lundqvist (89').

IFK Goteborg controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.