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IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
5/12/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 8Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

IFK Goteborg34%
×Draw27%
Djurgardens IF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.18
Djurgardens IF
1.30

Djurgardens IF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 124 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.28
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.20
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
61%
IFK Goteborg or Djurgardens IF
73%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
66%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
14%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
69%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
33%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
12%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
73%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
37%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
46%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
34%
level
27%
Djurgardens IF scores more
39%

Djurgardens IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat IFK Goteborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.