IFK Eskilstuna 1–5 United Nordic: Result & Stats

IFK Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 5

United Nordic

6/19/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 15Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna30%

×Draw21%

United Nordic49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchUnited Nordic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

2.13

IFK Eskilstuna

1.64

United Nordic

2.13

United Nordic creates 30% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 27 away

1.76

creates per match

2.33

1.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna

1.76

United Nordic

2.33

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna

1.92

United Nordic

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

United Nordic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

United Nordic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw

51%

IFK Eskilstuna or United Nordic

79%

Draw or United Nordic

70%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

14%

United Nordic wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

81%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

49%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

23%

United Nordic 1+ goals

88%

United Nordic 2+ goals

63%

United Nordic 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

38%

United Nordic (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

United Nordic away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + United Nordic defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

United Nordic attack 2.33 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

30%

level

21%

United Nordic scores more

49%

United Nordic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff