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IFK Eskilstuna vs Ljungsbro — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
E. Rigo 67', 55'
D. Lundgren 75'
M. Olsson 66'
5/4/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 6Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna54%
×Draw20%
Ljungsbro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Eskilstuna
2.42
Ljungsbro
1.65

IFK Eskilstuna creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.76
Ljungsbro
1.38

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.92
Ljungsbro
3.08

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

Ljungsbro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw
74%
IFK Eskilstuna or Ljungsbro
80%
Draw or Ljungsbro
46%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
34%
Ljungsbro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
91%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
69%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
43%
Ljungsbro 1+ goals
81%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
49%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
68%
Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Ljungsbro away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Ljungsbro defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ljungsbro attack 1.38 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more
54%
level
20%
Ljungsbro scores more
26%

IFK Eskilstuna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "IFK Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
R. Norlin
55'
E. Rigo
66'
M. Olsson
67'
E. Rigo
75'
D. Lundgren

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: IFK Eskilstuna 2–2 Ljungsbro

IFK Eskilstuna and Ljungsbro drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on May 4, 2024.

Goals: E. Rigo (55', 67'), M. Olsson (66'), D. Lundgren (75').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.