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Ifeanyi Uba vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
FT
1 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
1/23/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 4FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba61%
×Draw27%
Yobe Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.41
Yobe Stars
0.47

Ifeanyi Uba creates 200% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Yobe Stars
0.27

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Yobe Stars
1.55

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
88%
Ifeanyi Uba or Yobe Stars
73%
Draw or Yobe Stars
39%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
31%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
76%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
41%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
17%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
37%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
8%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
83%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
61%
level
27%
Yobe Stars scores more
12%

Ifeanyi Uba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ifeanyi Uba vs Yobe Stars

Ifeanyi Uba beat Yobe Stars 1-0 in NPFL on January 23, 2019.

The match was played at FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi).