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Ifeanyi Uba vs Rivers United — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rivers United
Rivers United
3/14/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 15Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba50%
×Draw30%
Rivers United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.25
Rivers United
0.69

Ifeanyi Uba creates 81% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 130 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Rivers United
0.72

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Rivers United
1.22

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
79%
Ifeanyi Uba or Rivers United
70%
Draw or Rivers United
50%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
23%
Rivers United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
71%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
36%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
13%
Rivers United 1+ goals
50%
Rivers United 2+ goals
15%
Rivers United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
71%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
50%
level
30%
Rivers United scores more
21%

Ifeanyi Uba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Ifeanyi Uba 0–0 Rivers United

Ifeanyi Uba and Rivers United drew 0-0 in NPFL on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium in Nnewi.