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Ifeanyi Uba vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
FT
1 – 0
MFM
MFM
3/1/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 22Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium (Nnewi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba56%
×Draw28%
MFM16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.34
MFM
0.57

Ifeanyi Uba creates 135% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
MFM
1.41

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
84%
Ifeanyi Uba or MFM
72%
Draw or MFM
44%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
27%
MFM wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
74%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
39%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
15%
MFM 1+ goals
43%
MFM 2+ goals
11%
MFM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
78%
MFM (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

MFM attack 0.49 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
56%
level
28%
MFM scores more
16%

Ifeanyi Uba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ifeanyi Uba 1 – 0 MFM

Ifeanyi Uba beat MFM 1-0 in NPFL on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium (Nnewi).