Ifeanyi Uba vs Katsina United — NPFL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 44+ matches
Ifeanyi Uba60%
Katsina United12%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ifeanyi Uba creates 198% more chances
Season form · 44 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No72
- Yes28
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ifeanyi Uba ↓
Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches
Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40
Katsina United attack 0.29 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Ifeanyi Uba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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Wikki TouristIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ifeanyi Uba host Katsina United on Sunday, 24 May 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the NPFL 2019/2020 season.
Ifeanyi Uba face Katsina United (NPFL)
NPFL returns with Ifeanyi Uba hosting Katsina United. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Ifeanyi Uba host Katsina United at Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.