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Ifeanyi Uba vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
FT
2 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
2/6/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 7FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba63%
×Draw25%
Gombe United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.57
Gombe United
0.51

Ifeanyi Uba creates 208% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Gombe United
1.88

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
88%
Ifeanyi Uba or Gombe United
75%
Draw or Gombe United
37%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
35%
Gombe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
79%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
46%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
21%
Gombe United 1+ goals
40%
Gombe United 2+ goals
9%
Gombe United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
84%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.88 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Gombe United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
63%
level
25%
Gombe United scores more
12%

Ifeanyi Uba at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ifeanyi Uba vs Gombe United

Ifeanyi Uba beat Gombe United 2-0 in NPFL on February 6, 2019.

The match was played at FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi).