Ifeanyi Uba 1–1 Enyimba: Result & Stats | NPFL

Ifeanyi Uba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Enyimba

7/22/2021

NPFL · Round 34Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba49%

×Draw30%

Enyimba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ifeanyi UbaExpected goals in this matchEnyimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.70

Ifeanyi Uba

1.25

Enyimba

0.70

Ifeanyi Uba creates 79% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 130 away

1.27

creates per match

0.74

0.66

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba

1.27

Enyimba

0.74

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba

0.66

Enyimba

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Enyimba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw

79%

Ifeanyi Uba or Enyimba

70%

Draw or Enyimba

51%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+

23%

Enyimba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals

71%

Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals

36%

Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals

13%

Enyimba 1+ goals

50%

Enyimba 2+ goals

16%

Enyimba 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)

70%

Enyimba (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more

49%

level

30%

Enyimba scores more

21%

Ifeanyi Uba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff