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Ifeanyi Uba vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
CANC
00:00
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
4/26/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 33Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba48%
×Draw30%
Enugu Rangers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.20
Enugu Rangers
0.69

Ifeanyi Uba creates 74% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 130 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
79%
Ifeanyi Uba or Enugu Rangers
70%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
52%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
21%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
70%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
34%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
12%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
50%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
15%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
69%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
48%
level
30%
Enugu Rangers scores more
21%

Ifeanyi Uba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ifeanyi Uba vs Enugu Rangers — Match Preview

Ifeanyi Uba face Enugu Rangers on April 26, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ifeanyi Uba host Enugu Rangers at Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.