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IF Ready vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

IF Ready
IF Ready
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Skeid II
Skeid II
10/16/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 25Gressbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Ready43%
×Draw20%
Skeid II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Ready
2.21
Skeid II
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

IF Ready
1.95
Skeid II
2.31

allows per match

IF Ready
1.74
Skeid II
2.46

finishing

IF Ready+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Ready ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

IF Ready or draw
64%
IF Ready or Skeid II
80%
Draw or Skeid II
57%

Winning margin

IF Ready wins by 2+
25%
Skeid II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

IF Ready 1+ goals
89%
IF Ready 2+ goals
65%
IF Ready 3+ goals
38%
Skeid II 1+ goals
87%
Skeid II 2+ goals
60%
Skeid II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

IF Ready (draw refunded)
54%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Ready at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Skeid II away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Ready attack 1.95 + Skeid II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.21

Skeid II attack 2.31 + IF Ready defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IF Ready scores more
43%
level
20%
Skeid II scores more
36%

IF Ready at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IF Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: IF Ready 1–2 Skeid II

Skeid II beat IF Ready 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Gressbanen in Oslo.