IF Ready 5–2 Hødd II: Result & Stats

IF Ready

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Hødd II

E. D. Ryen 71'

A. Engebretsen 61'

J. N. Schei 55'

M. Ebbesen 42'

M. Solli 11'

H. Svaeren 75' (pen)

H. P. Tjervaag 40'

6/8/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 10Gressbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Ready76%

×Draw14%

Hødd II10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF ReadyExpected goals in this matchHødd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.07

IF Ready

3.04

Hødd II

1.07

IF Ready creates 184% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

1.15

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

IF Ready

3.00

Hødd II

1.00

allows per match

IF Ready

1.15

Hødd II

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Ready+0.00on par

Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Ready ↓

Hødd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

IF Ready or draw

90%

IF Ready or Hødd II

86%

Draw or Hødd II

24%

Winning margin

IF Ready wins by 2+

56%

Hødd II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

IF Ready 1+ goals

95%

IF Ready 2+ goals

80%

IF Ready 3+ goals

57%

Hødd II 1+ goals

66%

Hødd II 2+ goals

29%

Hødd II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

IF Ready (draw refunded)

88%

Hødd II (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Ready at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Ready attack 3.00 + Hødd II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.04

Hødd II attack 1.00 + IF Ready defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

IF Ready scores more

76%

level

14%

Hødd II scores more

10%

IF Ready at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "IF Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Solli

40'

H. P. Tjervaag

42'

M. Ebbesen

55'

J. N. Schei

61'

A. Engebretsen

71'

E. D. Ryen

75'

H. SvaerenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff