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IF Ready vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

IF Ready
IF Ready
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 25Gressbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Ready74%
×Draw15%
Gjelleråsen11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Ready
2.84
Gjelleråsen
1.03

IF Ready creates 176% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

IF Ready
3.00
Gjelleråsen
0.92

allows per match

IF Ready
1.15
Gjelleråsen
2.69

finishing

IF Ready+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Ready ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

IF Ready or draw
89%
IF Ready or Gjelleråsen
85%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
26%

Winning margin

IF Ready wins by 2+
54%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

IF Ready 1+ goals
94%
IF Ready 2+ goals
77%
IF Ready 3+ goals
53%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
64%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
28%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

IF Ready (draw refunded)
87%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Ready at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Ready attack 3.00 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.84

Gjelleråsen attack 0.92 + IF Ready defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

IF Ready scores more
74%
level
15%
Gjelleråsen scores more
11%

IF Ready at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "IF Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Ready vs Gjelleråsen

IF Ready beat Gjelleråsen 7-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gressbanen in Oslo.