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IF Karlstad vs Sandviken — Ettan - Norra 2019

IF Karlstad
IF Karlstad
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sandviken
Sandviken
6/11/2022Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 12Tingvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

IF Karlstad37%
×Draw23%
Sandviken40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Karlstad
1.63
Sandviken
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 75 away

creates per match

IF Karlstad
1.97
Sandviken
2.03

allows per match

IF Karlstad
1.36
Sandviken
1.28

finishing

IF Karlstad+0.00on par
Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Karlstad ↓

Sandviken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IF Karlstad or draw
60%
IF Karlstad or Sandviken
77%
Draw or Sandviken
63%

Winning margin

IF Karlstad wins by 2+
18%
Sandviken wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

IF Karlstad 1+ goals
80%
IF Karlstad 2+ goals
48%
IF Karlstad 3+ goals
22%
Sandviken 1+ goals
82%
Sandviken 2+ goals
50%
Sandviken 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

IF Karlstad (draw refunded)
48%
Sandviken (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Karlstad at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.36 · 97 matches

Sandviken away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Karlstad attack 1.97 + Sandviken defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sandviken attack 2.03 + IF Karlstad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IF Karlstad scores more
37%
level
23%
Sandviken scores more
40%

Sandviken at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: IF Karlstad 0–3 Sandviken

Sandviken beat IF Karlstad 3-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Tingvalla IP in Karlstad.