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ÍF II vs Undrid — 1. Deild 2019

ÍF II
ÍF II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Undrid
Undrid
10/8/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 25á Fløtugerði

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ÍF II53%
×Draw21%
Undrid26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÍF II
2.17
Undrid
1.48

ÍF II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 13 away

creates per match

ÍF II
2.26
Undrid
1.46

allows per match

ÍF II
1.51
Undrid
2.08

finishing

ÍF II+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍF II ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ÍF II or draw
74%
ÍF II or Undrid
79%
Draw or Undrid
47%

Winning margin

ÍF II wins by 2+
32%
Undrid wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ÍF II 1+ goals
89%
ÍF II 2+ goals
64%
ÍF II 3+ goals
36%
Undrid 1+ goals
77%
Undrid 2+ goals
43%
Undrid 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ÍF II (draw refunded)
67%
Undrid (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÍF II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Undrid away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÍF II attack 2.26 + Undrid defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.17

Undrid attack 1.46 + ÍF II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ÍF II scores more
53%
level
21%
Undrid scores more
26%

ÍF II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ÍF II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ÍF II 4 – 0 Undrid

ÍF II beat Undrid 4-0 in 1. Deild on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at á Fløtugerði in Fuglafjørður, Eysturoy.