ÍF II 2–1 HB Torshavn: Result & Stats

ÍF II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

HB Torshavn

8/31/2024

Meistaradeildin · Round 21á Fløtugerði

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

ÍF II16%

×Draw18%

HB Torshavn65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÍF IIExpected goals in this matchHB Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

2.39

ÍF II

1.12

HB Torshavn

2.39

HB Torshavn creates 113% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 103 away

1.19

creates per match

2.18

2.60

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

ÍF II

1.19

HB Torshavn

2.18

allows per match

ÍF II

2.60

HB Torshavn

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ÍF II+0.00on par

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍF II ↓

HB Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

ÍF II or draw

35%

ÍF II or HB Torshavn

82%

Draw or HB Torshavn

84%

Winning margin

ÍF II wins by 2+

6%

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

ÍF II 1+ goals

67%

ÍF II 2+ goals

31%

ÍF II 3+ goals

10%

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

91%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

69%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

ÍF II (draw refunded)

20%

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÍF II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.60 · 67 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÍF II attack 1.19 + HB Torshavn defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

HB Torshavn attack 2.18 + ÍF II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

ÍF II scores more

16%

level

18%

HB Torshavn scores more

65%

HB Torshavn at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff