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ÍF II vs 07 Vestur — Meistaradeildin 2019

ÍF II
ÍF II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
07 Vestur
07 Vestur
3/17/2024MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 2á Fløtugerði

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

ÍF II34%
×Draw22%
07 Vestur44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÍF II
1.64
07 Vestur
1.90

07 Vestur creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 75 away

creates per match

ÍF II
1.19
07 Vestur
1.19

allows per match

ÍF II
2.60
07 Vestur
2.08

finishing

ÍF II+0.00on par
07 Vestur+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍF II ↓

07 Vestur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

ÍF II or draw
56%
ÍF II or 07 Vestur
78%
Draw or 07 Vestur
66%

Winning margin

ÍF II wins by 2+
16%
07 Vestur wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

ÍF II 1+ goals
81%
ÍF II 2+ goals
49%
ÍF II 3+ goals
23%
07 Vestur 1+ goals
85%
07 Vestur 2+ goals
56%
07 Vestur 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

ÍF II (draw refunded)
43%
07 Vestur (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÍF II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.60 · 67 matches

07 Vestur away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.08 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÍF II attack 1.19 + 07 Vestur defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

07 Vestur attack 1.19 + ÍF II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ÍF II scores more
34%
level
22%
07 Vestur scores more
44%

07 Vestur at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "07 Vestur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ÍF II vs 07 Vestur

07 Vestur beat ÍF II 1-0 in Meistaradeildin on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at á Fløtugerði in Fuglafjørður, Eysturoy.