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IF Elfsborg vs Trelleborg — Allsvenskan 2018

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
5/27/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 11Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IF Elfsborg60%
×Draw22%
Trelleborg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.94
Trelleborg
0.98

IF Elfsborg creates 98% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.80
Trelleborg
0.80

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.16
Trelleborg
2.07

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
81%
IF Elfsborg or Trelleborg
78%
Draw or Trelleborg
40%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
35%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
86%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
58%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
30%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
62%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
26%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
76%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 127 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.80 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
60%
level
22%
Trelleborg scores more
19%

IF Elfsborg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Elfsborg vs Trelleborg

IF Elfsborg beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Boras.