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IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
7/11/2021AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

IF Elfsborg54%
×Draw23%
Orebro SK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.77
Orebro SK
1.05

IF Elfsborg creates 69% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 60 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.80
Orebro SK
0.95

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.16
Orebro SK
1.75

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
78%
IF Elfsborg or Orebro SK
77%
Draw or Orebro SK
46%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
30%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
83%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
53%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
26%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
65%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
28%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
71%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.80 + Orebro SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Orebro SK attack 0.95 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
54%
level
23%
Orebro SK scores more
22%

IF Elfsborg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IF Elfsborg 2–1 Orebro SK

IF Elfsborg beat Orebro SK 2-1 in Allsvenskan on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.