IF Elfsborg 2–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

IF Elfsborg

2 – 2

ODD Ballklubb

2/18/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Rydahallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IF Elfsborg50%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF ElfsborgExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.41

IF Elfsborg

1.94

ODD Ballklubb

1.41

IF Elfsborg creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.77

creates per match

1.44

1.38

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

IF Elfsborg

1.77

ODD Ballklubb

1.44

allows per match

IF Elfsborg

1.38

ODD Ballklubb

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw

72%

IF Elfsborg or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

50%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

28%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

86%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

58%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

30%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

76%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

41%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

64%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.77 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.44 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more

50%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

28%

IF Elfsborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff