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IF Brommapojkarna vs Syrianska FC — Superettan 2018

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
9/1/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 22Grimsta IP (Stockholm)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna57%
×Draw22%
Syrianska FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.94
Syrianska FC
1.09

IF Brommapojkarna creates 78% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.87
Syrianska FC
0.87

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.32
Syrianska FC
2.00

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
79%
IF Brommapojkarna or Syrianska FC
78%
Draw or Syrianska FC
43%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
33%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
86%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
58%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
30%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
66%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
30%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
73%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.87 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
57%
level
22%
Syrianska FC scores more
21%

IF Brommapojkarna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Brommapojkarna vs Syrianska FC

IF Brommapojkarna and Syrianska FC drew 1-1 in Superettan on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Grimsta IP (Stockholm).