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IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS — Svenska Cupen 2019

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
2/23/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna50%
×Draw24%
Orgryte IS26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.72
Orgryte IS
1.19

IF Brommapojkarna creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.38
Orgryte IS
1.06

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.31
Orgryte IS
2.06

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
74%
IF Brommapojkarna or Orgryte IS
76%
Draw or Orgryte IS
50%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
27%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
82%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
51%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
25%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
70%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
33%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
65%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.38 + Orgryte IS defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.72

Orgryte IS attack 1.06 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
50%
level
24%
Orgryte IS scores more
26%

IF Brommapojkarna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS

IF Brommapojkarna beat Orgryte IS 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.