IF Brommapojkarna 4–1 IK Frej: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

IK Frej

10/17/2020

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 24Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna68%

×Draw18%

IK Frej14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchIK Frej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.03

IF Brommapojkarna

2.46

IK Frej

1.03

IF Brommapojkarna creates 139% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.80

creates per match

1.40

0.67

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

2.80

IK Frej

1.40

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

0.67

IK Frej

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

IK Frej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

86%

IF Brommapojkarna or IK Frej

82%

Draw or IK Frej

32%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

46%

IK Frej wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

91%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

70%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

44%

IK Frej 1+ goals

64%

IK Frej 2+ goals

28%

IK Frej 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

83%

IK Frej (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 2.80 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.46

IK Frej attack 1.40 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

68%

level

18%

IK Frej scores more

14%

IF Brommapojkarna at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff