IF Brommapojkarna 1–0 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby FF

K. Ackermann 56'

7/21/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 16Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna32%

×Draw27%

Hammarby FF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.33

IF Brommapojkarna

1.13

Hammarby FF

1.33

Hammarby FF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

1.21

1.46

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.29

Hammarby FF

1.21

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.46

Hammarby FF

0.96

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna-0.07on par

Hammarby FF-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

59%

IF Brommapojkarna or Hammarby FF

73%

Draw or Hammarby FF

68%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

13%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

68%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

31%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

11%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

74%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

38%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

43%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 9 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.96 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.29 + Hammarby FF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hammarby FF attack 1.21 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

32%

level

27%

Hammarby FF scores more

41%

Hammarby FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Hägg-Johansson

IF Brommapojkarna · G

8.2

Match Events

34'

Kevin Ackermann

37'

M. Fenger← E. Kurtulus

42'

Fredrik Hammar

45+4'

Oscar Pettersson

46'

T. Tekie← F. Hammar

56'

K. Ackermann↳ A. Jensen

57'

M. Ćosić← W. Odefalk

71'

N. Vasić← Alexander Johansson

71'

T. Waker← K. Ackermann

71'

M. Madjed← A. Demirol

71'

A. Nalić← J. Nilsson

74'

Ludvig Fritzson

86'

M. Rafferty← S. Strand

89'

S. Kroon← O. Pettersson

89'

F. Nissen← A. Calisir

90+4'

Samuel Kroon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFHammarby

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots14

1.32Expected Goals (xG)1.08

5Corners11

21Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots14

7On Target6

3Off Target6

1Blocked2

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

447Total Passes522

371Accurate Passes462

83%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

21Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1