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Iecava vs Beitar / Riga Mariners — Cup 2020

Iecava
Iecava
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Beitar / Riga Mariners
Beitar / Riga Mariners
6/2/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundIecavas novada stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iecava4%
×Draw9%
Beitar / Riga Mariners87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iecava
0.54
Beitar / Riga Mariners
3.17

Beitar / Riga Mariners creates 487% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Iecava
0.75
Beitar / Riga Mariners
3.33

allows per match

Iecava
3.00
Beitar / Riga Mariners
0.33

finishing

Iecava+0.00on par
Beitar / Riga Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iecava ↓

Beitar / Riga Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–213%
0–314%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (14%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Iecava or draw
13%
Iecava or Beitar / Riga Mariners
91%
Draw or Beitar / Riga Mariners
96%

Winning margin

Iecava wins by 2+
1%
Beitar / Riga Mariners wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Iecava 1+ goals
42%
Iecava 2+ goals
10%
Iecava 3+ goals
2%
Beitar / Riga Mariners 1+ goals
96%
Beitar / Riga Mariners 2+ goals
82%
Beitar / Riga Mariners 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Iecava (draw refunded)
4%
Beitar / Riga Mariners (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iecava at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Beitar / Riga Mariners away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iecava attack 0.75 + Beitar / Riga Mariners defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Beitar / Riga Mariners attack 3.33 + Iecava defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Iecava scores more
4%
level
9%
Beitar / Riga Mariners scores more
87%

Beitar / Riga Mariners at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Beitar / Riga Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iecava vs Beitar / Riga Mariners

Beitar / Riga Mariners beat Iecava 3-1 in Cup on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Iecavas novada stadions in Iecava.