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Ideal vs Vale Formoso — Taça de Portugal 2018

Ideal
Ideal
FT
4 – 0
Vale Formoso
Vale Formoso
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ideal83%
×Draw11%
Vale Formoso6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ideal
3.33
Vale Formoso
0.83

Ideal creates 301% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ideal
1.33
Vale Formoso
0.00

allows per match

Ideal
1.67
Vale Formoso
5.33

finishing

Ideal+0.00on par
Vale Formoso+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ideal ↓

Vale Formoso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ideal or draw
94%
Ideal or Vale Formoso
89%
Draw or Vale Formoso
17%

Winning margin

Ideal wins by 2+
66%
Vale Formoso wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ideal 1+ goals
96%
Ideal 2+ goals
84%
Ideal 3+ goals
63%
Vale Formoso 1+ goals
56%
Vale Formoso 2+ goals
20%
Vale Formoso 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ideal (draw refunded)
93%
Vale Formoso (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ideal at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vale Formoso away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ideal attack 1.33 + Vale Formoso defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Vale Formoso attack 0.00 + Ideal defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Ideal scores more
83%
level
11%
Vale Formoso scores more
6%

Ideal at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Ideal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Ideal 4–0 Vale Formoso

Ideal beat Vale Formoso 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande in Ribeira Grande.