Ideal 4–0 Olímpico do Montijo: Result & Stats

Ideal

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olímpico do Montijo

3/14/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 20Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ideal55%

×Draw24%

Olímpico do Montijo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IdealExpected goals in this matchOlímpico do Montijo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.91

Ideal

1.68

Olímpico do Montijo

0.91

Ideal creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.36

creates per match

0.82

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ideal

1.36

Olímpico do Montijo

0.82

allows per match

Ideal

1.00

Olímpico do Montijo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ideal+0.00on par

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ideal ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ideal or draw

80%

Ideal or Olímpico do Montijo

76%

Draw or Olímpico do Montijo

45%

Winning margin

Ideal wins by 2+

30%

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ideal 1+ goals

81%

Ideal 2+ goals

50%

Ideal 3+ goals

24%

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals

60%

Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals

23%

Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ideal (draw refunded)

73%

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ideal at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ideal attack 1.36 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.82 + Ideal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ideal scores more

55%

level

24%

Olímpico do Montijo scores more

20%

Ideal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ideal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff