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Ideal vs Estrela — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Ideal
Ideal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
3/20/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 13Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ideal34%
×Draw30%
Estrela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ideal
1.04
Estrela
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ideal
1.36
Estrela
1.18

allows per match

Ideal
1.00
Estrela
0.73

finishing

Ideal+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ideal ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ideal or draw
64%
Ideal or Estrela
70%
Draw or Estrela
66%

Winning margin

Ideal wins by 2+
13%
Estrela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ideal 1+ goals
65%
Ideal 2+ goals
28%
Ideal 3+ goals
9%
Estrela 1+ goals
66%
Estrela 2+ goals
30%
Estrela 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ideal (draw refunded)
48%
Estrela (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ideal at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ideal attack 1.36 + Estrela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Estrela attack 1.18 + Ideal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ideal scores more
34%
level
30%
Estrela scores more
36%

Estrela at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ideal 0 – 0 Estrela

Ideal and Estrela drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande in Ribeira Grande.