Ideal 1–1 Belenenses II: Result & Stats

Ideal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belenenses II

12/6/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 8Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ideal48%

×Draw28%

Belenenses II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IdealExpected goals in this matchBelenenses II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.86

Ideal

1.36

Belenenses II

0.86

Ideal creates 58% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.36

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Ideal

1.36

Belenenses II

0.73

allows per match

Ideal

1.00

Belenenses II

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ideal+0.00on par

Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ideal ↓

Belenenses II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ideal or draw

76%

Ideal or Belenenses II

72%

Draw or Belenenses II

52%

Winning margin

Ideal wins by 2+

23%

Belenenses II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ideal 1+ goals

74%

Ideal 2+ goals

39%

Ideal 3+ goals

16%

Belenenses II 1+ goals

58%

Belenenses II 2+ goals

21%

Belenenses II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ideal (draw refunded)

67%

Belenenses II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ideal at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ideal attack 1.36 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Ideal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ideal scores more

48%

level

28%

Belenenses II scores more

24%

Ideal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ideal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff