Iceland W 3–2 Republic of Ireland W: Result & Stats

Iceland W

FT

3 – 2

Republic of Ireland W

6/11/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iceland W65%

×Draw21%

Republic of Ireland W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland WExpected goals in this matchRepublic of Ireland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.78

Iceland W

1.94

Republic of Ireland W

0.78

Iceland W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

0.22

1.33

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Iceland W

2.00

Republic of Ireland W

0.22

allows per match

Iceland W

1.33

Republic of Ireland W

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland W+0.00on par

Republic of Ireland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland W ↓

Republic of Ireland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Iceland W or draw

86%

Iceland W or Republic of Ireland W

79%

Draw or Republic of Ireland W

35%

Winning margin

Iceland W wins by 2+

39%

Republic of Ireland W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Iceland W 1+ goals

86%

Iceland W 2+ goals

58%

Iceland W 3+ goals

30%

Republic of Ireland W 1+ goals

54%

Republic of Ireland W 2+ goals

18%

Republic of Ireland W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Iceland W (draw refunded)

82%

Republic of Ireland W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Republic of Ireland W away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland W attack 2.00 + Republic of Ireland W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Republic of Ireland W attack 0.22 + Iceland W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Iceland W scores more

65%

level

21%

Republic of Ireland W scores more

14%

Iceland W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Iceland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff