Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Iceland vs Moldova — Euro Championship 2024

Iceland
Iceland
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moldova
Moldova
J. Böðvarsson 77'
B. Bjarnason 55'
K. Sigþórsson 31'
9/7/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iceland78%
×Draw17%
Moldova5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iceland
2.04
Moldova
0.35

Iceland creates 483% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Iceland
1.67
Moldova
0.20

allows per match

Iceland
0.50
Moldova
2.40

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par
Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Moldova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Iceland or draw
95%
Iceland or Moldova
83%
Draw or Moldova
22%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+
51%
Moldova wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals
87%
Iceland 2+ goals
60%
Iceland 3+ goals
33%
Moldova 1+ goals
30%
Moldova 2+ goals
5%
Moldova 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)
94%
Moldova (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.67 + Moldova defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

Moldova attack 0.20 + Iceland defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Iceland scores more
78%
level
17%
Moldova scores more
5%

Iceland at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
A. SkúlasonIcelandIceland · D
8.1

Match Events

31'
K. Sigþórsson↳ J. Böðvarsson
42'
Cătălin Carp
55'
B. Bjarnason
63'
E. Hallfreðsson← K. Sigþórsson
65'
Maxim Cojocaru I← V. Cemîrtan
67'
I. Ţurcan← C. Carp
77'
J. Böðvarsson
78'
R. Sigurjónsson← B. Bjarnason
80'
C. Sandu← R. Gînsari
84'
V. Kjartansson← J. Böðvarsson
90'
Igor Armas

Possession

56%Iceland

Shots

17Iceland

Pass accuracy

52%Iceland

Statistics

IcelandMoldova
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots3
8Corners7
11Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots3
7On Target2
8Off Target0
2Blocked1
11Inside Box2
6Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
443Total Passes347
350Accurate Passes256
79%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Iceland vs Moldova

Iceland beat Moldova 3-0 in Euro Championship on September 7, 2019.

Goals: K. Sigþórsson (31'), B. Bjarnason (55'), J. Böðvarsson (77').

Iceland controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík.