Iceland 1–3 Kosovo: Result & Stats

Iceland

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kosovo

O. Óskarsson 2'

V. Muriqi 79', 45+3', 35'

3/23/2025

UEFA Nations League · Play-offs B/CEstadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iceland21%

×Draw23%

Kosovo56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IcelandExpected goals in this matchKosovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.83

Iceland

1.01

Kosovo

1.83

Kosovo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.09

creates per match

1.58

2.09

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Iceland

1.09

Kosovo

1.58

allows per match

Iceland

2.09

Kosovo

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par

Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Kosovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Iceland or draw

44%

Iceland or Kosovo

77%

Draw or Kosovo

79%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+

7%

Kosovo wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals

64%

Iceland 2+ goals

27%

Iceland 3+ goals

8%

Kosovo 1+ goals

84%

Kosovo 2+ goals

54%

Kosovo 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)

27%

Kosovo (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.09 + Kosovo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kosovo attack 1.58 + Iceland defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Iceland scores more

21%

level

23%

Kosovo scores more

56%

Kosovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

V. Muriqi

Kosovo · F

9.2

Match Events

2'

O. Óskarsson↳ A. Guðmundsson

22'

B. Bjarkason← V. Lunddal Friðriksson

35'

V. Muriqi

39'

Mërgim Vojvoda

45+3'

V. Muriqi↳ M. Rashica

46'

A. Gunnarsson← A. Traustason

46'

L. Tómasson← Í. Jóhannesson

48'

Aron Gunnarsson

52'

Vedat Muriqi

55'

L. Emërllahu← V. Demaku

65'

A. Guðjohnsen← O. Óskarsson

65'

K. Hlynsson← W. Willumsson

69'

69'

70'

72'

75'

78'

E. Sahiti← M. Rashica

78'

I. Krasniqi← E. Krasniqi

79'

V. Muriqi↳ L. Emërllahu

87'

Albion Rrahmani← V. Muriqi

87'

D. Gallapeni← F. Muslija

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IcelandKosovo

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots21

6Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots21

2On Target10

4Off Target8

3Blocked3

2Inside Box14

7Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

468Total Passes361

389Accurate Passes291

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1