Iceland U19 2–2 Turkey U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Turkey U19

K. Hlynsson 90'

O. Óskarsson 34' (pen)

İ. Akar 48'

A. Karapo 19'

3/22/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2St George's Park - pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iceland U1942%

×Draw26%

Turkey U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchTurkey U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.17

Iceland U19

1.39

Turkey U19

1.17

Iceland U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.45

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Turkey U19

1.33

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Turkey U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Turkey U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

68%

Iceland U19 or Turkey U19

74%

Draw or Turkey U19

58%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

20%

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

75%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

40%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

16%

Turkey U19 1+ goals

69%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

33%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Turkey U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Turkey U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Turkey U19 attack 1.33 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

42%

level

26%

Turkey U19 scores more

32%

Iceland U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

19'

29'

31'

34'

34'

O. ÓskarssonPenalty

42'

J. Yilmaz

46'

D. Tıknaz← S. Satılmış

46'

İ. Akar← E. Demir

46'

T. Sarıarslan← B. İnce

48'

İ. Akar

64'

A. Kaygısız← T. Sarıarslan

79'

Á. Þorsteinsson← A. Birgisson

79'

B. Brynjólfsson← Þ. Antonsson

81'

E. Sarikaya

81'

E. Sarikaya

84'

G. Nökkvason← A. Gíslason

86'

D. E. Tiknaz

90'

K. Hlynsson

Iceland

Turkey

1

Bilgin

5

Kömeç

4

⚽

Karapo

3

Sarıkaya

2

Dağaşan

11

▼

Demir

10

▼

İnce

6

▼

Satılmış

17

▼

7

8

1

5

▼

4

6

7

11

▼

Birgisson

8

⚽

Hlynsson

2

Karlsson

10

⚽

Óskarsson

3

▼

Gíslason

9

Mikaelsso

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

79'▲Á. Þorsteinsson←▼A. Birgisson

79'▲B. Brynjólfsson←▼Þ. Antonsson

84'▲G. Nökkvason←▼A. Gíslason

Iceland U19 substitutes

19Þorsteinsson13Brynjólfsson15Nökkvason18Aðalsteinsson14Kristjánsson16Þórðarson12Georgsson17Haraldsson20Stöle

Manager: A. Başkan

31'▲J. Yılmaz←▼T. Gündüz

46'▲D. Tıknaz←▼S. Satılmış

46'▲İ. Akar←▼E. Demir

46'▲T. Sarıarslan←▼B. İnce

64'▲A. Kaygısız←▼T. Sarıarslan

Turkey U19 substitutes

12Yılmaz18Tıknaz20Akar19Sarıarslan15Kaygısız14Yılmaz16Şenyurt9Kaya13Çaylı

Match Recap: Iceland U19 vs Turkey U19

Iceland U19 and Turkey U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Karapo (19'), O. Óskarsson (34' pen), İ. Akar (48'), K. Hlynsson (90').

The match was played at St George's Park - pitch 4 in Burton upon Trent, Staffordshire.

Iceland U19 vs Turkey U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Iceland U19 vs Turkey U19