Iceland U19 1–2 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spain U19

Á. Þorsteinsson 90+1'

Victor Barberá 47'

Yarek Gasiorowski 16'

7/4/2023

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iceland U1912%

×Draw18%

Spain U1970%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

2.28

Iceland U19

0.84

Spain U19

2.28

Spain U19 creates 171% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

2.81

1.75

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Spain U19

2.81

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.75

Spain U19

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

30%

Iceland U19 or Spain U19

82%

Draw or Spain U19

88%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

4%

Spain U19 wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

57%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

21%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

5%

Spain U19 1+ goals

90%

Spain U19 2+ goals

66%

Spain U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.81, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.00 + Spain U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Spain U19 attack 2.81 + Iceland U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

12%

level

18%

Spain U19 scores more

70%

Spain U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ilias Akhomach

Spain U19 · M

9.0

Match Events

16'

Yarek Gasiorowski↳ Ilias Akhomach

46'

A. Aðalsteinsson← Þ. Antonsson

47'

Victor Barberá

52'

Bjarni Guðjón Brynjólfsson

56'

Eggert Aron Guðmundsson

58'

D. Kristjánsson← A. Gíslason

58'

H. Haraldsson← G. Nökkvason

58'

S. Jörundsson← G. Þórðarson

72'

Assane Diao← Dani Pérez

72'

Samu← Victor Barberá

80'

R. Þorkelsson← E. Guðmundsson

83'

Haukur Haraldsson

83'

Aleix Garrido← Manuel Ángel

87'

Bjarni Guðjón Brynjólfsson

87'

Bjarni Guðjón Brynjólfsson

90+2'

Edgar Pujol← Álex Valle

90+2'

Félix Garreta← César Palacios

90+1'

Á. Þorsteinsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IcelandSpain

Overview

34%Possession66%

3Total Shots17

2Corners10

21Fouls6

Shots

3Total Shots17

1On Target4

1Off Target9

1Blocked4

1Inside Box13

2Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

285Total Passes537

215Accurate Passes480

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls6

4Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

UEFA U19 Championship: Iceland U19 1–2 Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Iceland U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 4, 2023.

Goals: Yarek Gasiorowski (16'), Victor Barberá (47'), Á. Þorsteinsson (90+1').

Spain U19 controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.

Iceland U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA U19 Championship: Iceland U19 1–2 Spain U19