Iceland U19 3–1 Slovenia U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Slovenia U19

O. Óskarsson 55', 19'

H. Haraldsson 1'

N. Gavrić 53'

10/6/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Gornja Radgona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iceland U1949%

×Draw26%

Slovenia U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.03

Iceland U19

1.54

Slovenia U19

1.03

Iceland U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Slovenia U19

1.06

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Slovenia U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

75%

Iceland U19 or Slovenia U19

74%

Draw or Slovenia U19

51%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

25%

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

79%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

45%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

20%

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

64%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

28%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

49%

level

26%

Slovenia U19 scores more

25%

Iceland U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

19'

53'

55'

66'

66'

M. Strajnar← Ž. Jevšenak

66'

Č. Rotar← Ž. Bunić

77'

K. Halldórsson← D. Djuric

78'

Ž. Baskera← T. Kljun

87'

A. Sigurpálsson← H. Haraldsson

87'

N. Perc← A. Čaušević

Iceland

Slovenia

1

Pridgar

4

Zajšek

3

Kuzmić

16

▼

Matjaž

15

⚽

Gavrić

23

Ratnik

8

▼

Jevšenak

21

▼

Kljun

10

Cipot

20

▼

Bunić

11

▼

Čaušević

1

Arinbjör

11

⚽

▼

2

6

4

5

8

7

10

▼

Djuric

9

⚽2

Óskarsson

3

Gíslason

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

77'▲K. Halldórsson←▼D. Djuric

87'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼H. Haraldsson

Iceland U19 substitutes

16Halldórsson19Sigurpálsson13Hoti14Hafþórsson17Tyrfingsson15Karlsson18Mikaelsson20Sigurgeirsson12Ásgeirsson

Manager: B. Cesar

66'▲G. Černe←▼S. Matjaž

66'▲M. Strajnar←▼Ž. Jevšenak

66'▲Č. Rotar←▼Ž. Bunić

78'▲Ž. Baskera←▼T. Kljun

87'▲N. Perc←▼A. Čaušević

Slovenia U19 substitutes

9Černe13Strajnar7Rotar17Baskera14Perc19Kolar12Dermastija5Klašnja18Slaviček

Match Recap: Iceland U19 vs Slovenia U19

Iceland U19 beat Slovenia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 6, 2021.

Goals: H. Haraldsson (1'), O. Óskarsson (19', 55'), N. Gavrić (53').

The match was played at Stadion Gornja Radgona in Gornja Radgona.

Iceland U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Iceland U19 vs Slovenia U19