Iceland U19 1–0 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Scotland U19

O. Óskarsson 70'

11/16/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Firhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Iceland U1954%

×Draw24%

Scotland U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.95

Iceland U19

1.67

Scotland U19

0.95

Iceland U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

79%

Iceland U19 or Scotland U19

76%

Draw or Scotland U19

46%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

29%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

81%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

50%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

23%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

61%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

25%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

54%

level

24%

Scotland U19 scores more

21%

Iceland U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

K. Smith

41'

F. Pollock

46'

B. Brynjólfsson← H. Mikaelsson

65'

A. Birgisson← D. Kristjánsson

70'

O. Óskarsson

71'

B. Hepburn← K. Offord

72'

H. Haraldsson← G. Þórðarson

77'

P. Antonsson

79'

A. Mebude

84'

E. A. Gudmundsson

86'

R. Ure← F. Pollock

87'

O. S. Oskarsson

87'

B. Wales← J. Adam

Iceland

Scotland

1

2

3

16

5

8

7

10

▼

Adam

9

▼

Pollock

11

Mebude

14

▼

1

16

5

14

▼

6

7

4

9

▼

Mikaelsso

8

▼

Þórðarson

10

⚽

Óskarsson

3

Gíslason

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

46'▲B. Brynjólfsson←▼H. Mikaelsson

65'▲A. Birgisson←▼D. Kristjánsson

72'▲H. Haraldsson←▼G. Þórðarson

Iceland U19 substitutes

13Brynjólfsson11Birgisson17Haraldsson2Aðalsteinsson12Magnússon18Magnússon15Guðjohnsen19Þorkelsson20Björnsson

Manager: B. Stark

71'▲B. Hepburn←▼K. Offord

86'▲R. Ure←▼F. Pollock

87'▲B. Wales←▼J. Adam

Scotland U19 substitutes

13Hepburn15Ure20Wales17Allan18Reid6Towler4Harkness12McFarlane19Aiken

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Iceland U19 1–0 Scotland U19

Iceland U19 beat Scotland U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2022.

Goals: O. Óskarsson (70').

The match was played at Firhill Stadium in Glasgow.

Iceland U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Iceland U19 1–0 Scotland U19