Iceland U19 1–2 Republic of Ireland U19

Iceland U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Republic of Ireland U19

D. Jóhannesson 55' (pen)

N. Razi 69'

Sölvi Stefánsson 8' (OG)

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Iceland U1945%

×Draw26%

Republic of Ireland U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchRepublic of Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Iceland U19

1.48

Republic of Ireland U19

1.15

Iceland U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Republic of Ireland U19

1.30

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Republic of Ireland U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Republic of Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

71%

Iceland U19 or Republic of Ireland U19

74%

Draw or Republic of Ireland U19

55%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

22%

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

77%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

43%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

19%

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

68%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

32%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Republic of Ireland U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.30 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

45%

level

26%

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

29%

Iceland U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Sölvi StefánssonOwn goal

34'

D. Jonsson

55'

Cathal O'Sullivan← T. Koné-Doherty

55'

D. JóhannessonPenalty

65'

I. Orazi← A. Moloney

65'

N. Okosun← C. Dillon

65'

R. Akachukwu← T. Morley

66'

T. Johannessen

69'

N. Razi

73'

S. Keogh

77'

D. Guðjohnsen← S. Harðarson

89'

B. Baldursson← T. Jóhannessen

89'

Stefán Stefánsson← B. Hauksson

90+1'

N. McAndrew← R. Akachukwu

Iceland

Republic

16

Gill

12

Grante

5

Ashbee

10

⚽

Razi

4

Turley

6

Devaney

20

▼

Moloney

19

Keogh

2

▼

Morley

11

▼

Koné-Dohe

9

▼

Dillon

1

Þórhallss

4

Þorbjörns

5

🥅

Stefánsso

18

Jónsson

3

Aronsson

10

▼

Jóhanness

17

⚽

Jóhanness

13

▼

Hauksson

15

Ellertsso

7

Þórðarson

20

▼

Harðarson

Manager: Þ. Siggeirsson

77'▲D. Guðjohnsen←▼S. Harðarson

89'▲B. Baldursson←▼T. Jóhannessen

89'▲Stefán Stefánsson←▼B. Hauksson

Iceland U19 substitutes

9Guðjohnsen6Baldursson2Stefánsson19Burknason14Sigurðsson12Símonarson

Manager: T. Mohan

55'▲Cathal O'Sullivan←▼T. Koné-Doherty

65'▲I. Orazi←▼A. Moloney

65'▲N. Okosun←▼C. Dillon

65'▲R. Akachukwu←▼T. Morley

90+1'▲N. McAndrew←▼R. Akachukwu

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

7O'Sullivan14Orazi18Okosun8Akachukwu21McAndrew13McCarthy3O'Sullivan15Patton1Cooney