Iceland U19 0–3 Belgium U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Belgium U19

A. Colassin 85'

N. Raskin 42'

C. De Ketelaere 19'

11/13/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Sportcentrum Tessenderlo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iceland U1920%

×Draw21%

Belgium U1960%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchBelgium U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.13

Iceland U19

1.13

Belgium U19

2.13

Belgium U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

1.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Belgium U19

2.50

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.75

Belgium U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

40%

Iceland U19 or Belgium U19

79%

Draw or Belgium U19

80%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

68%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

31%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

11%

Belgium U19 1+ goals

88%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

63%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.00 + Belgium U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Belgium U19 attack 2.50 + Iceland U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

20%

level

21%

Belgium U19 scores more

60%

Belgium U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

C. De Ketelaere

42'

N. Raskin

72'

K. Gunnarsson← M. Ellertsson

72'

O. Kjartansson← K. Ingason

72'

A. Onana← N. Raskin

80'

M. Kana← D. Mbayo

85'

A. Colassin

87'

A. Cuypers← K. Vaesen

90'

J. Gunnarsson← A. Baldursson

Iceland

Belgium

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Örlygsson

72'▲K. Gunnarsson←▼M. Ellertsson

72'▲O. Kjartansson←▼K. Ingason

90'▲J. Gunnarsson←▼A. Baldursson

Iceland U19 substitutes

7Gunnarsson19Kjartansson4Gunnarsson14Stefánsson16Jóhannsson12Valdimarsson13Dimitrijevic20Hafþórsson11Djuric

Manager: J. Mathijssen

72'▲A. Onana←▼N. Raskin

80'▲M. Kana←▼D. Mbayo

87'▲A. Cuypers←▼K. Vaesen

Belgium U19 substitutes

8Onana2Kana10Cuypers17Essabri19Ugur13Dubois12Delanghe4Thiel18Vandermeulen

Match Recap: Iceland U19 vs Belgium U19

Belgium U19 beat Iceland U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 13, 2019.

Goals: C. De Ketelaere (19'), N. Raskin (42'), A. Colassin (85').

The match was played at Sportcentrum Tessenderlo in Tessenderlo.

Iceland U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Iceland U19 vs Belgium U19