Iceland U19 3–0 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Andorra U19

V. Dadason 90'

G. Olsen 41', 9'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iceland U1966%

×Draw22%

Andorra U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.67

Iceland U19

1.85

Andorra U19

0.67

Iceland U19 creates 176% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.45

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Andorra U19

0.33

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Andorra U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

87%

Iceland U19 or Andorra U19

78%

Draw or Andorra U19

34%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

39%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

84%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

55%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

28%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

49%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

15%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

66%

level

22%

Andorra U19 scores more

13%

Iceland U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

G. Olsen↳ G. Hallsson

41'

G. Olsen↳ D. Johannesson

46'

V. Dadason← J. Sigurdsson

46'

T. Kristjansson← F. Gudnason

60'

G. Olsen

70'

E. Arnarsson← S. Asgeirsson

74'

Juanfran

76'

A. Gracia← J. Rodriguez

76'

S. Fernandes← A. Bisbal

76'

J. Moutinho← Juanfran

77'

E. Halldorsson← J. Arnarsson

84'

J. Moutinho

88'

K. Karlsson← G. Olsen

88'

G. De Almeida← P. Simonet

90+1'

D. Johannesson

90'

V. Dadason

Iceland

Andorra

1

3

4

20

5

▼

Juanfran

9

▼

Rodriguez

10

Santaella

6

▼

Simonet

2

Moraguez

7

▼

Bisbal

19

Garcia

1

Simonarso

2

▼

Asgeirsso

4

Gudbergss

5

Aronsson

6

A

Hallsson

14

Vidarsson

8

A

Johanness

11

▼

Gudnason

7

⚽2

▼

Olsen

18

▼

Arnarsson

19

▼

Sigurdsso

Manager: Þ. Siggeirsson

46'▲V. Dadason←▼J. Sigurdsson

46'▲T. Kristjansson←▼F. Gudnason

70'▲E. Arnarsson←▼S. Asgeirsson

77'▲E. Halldorsson←▼J. Arnarsson

88'▲K. Karlsson←▼G. Olsen

Iceland U19 substitutes

12Ingvason3Arnarsson9Dadason10Kristjansson13Arnarsson15Hlynsson16Halldorsson17Gunnarsson20Karlsson

Manager: Óscar Sonejee

76'▲A. Gracia←▼J. Rodriguez

76'▲S. Fernandes←▼A. Bisbal

76'▲J. Moutinho←▼Juanfran

88'▲G. De Almeida←▼P. Simonet

Andorra U19 substitutes

13Fernandez8Gracia11Fernandes14Torres15Moutinho16Anglada18Masafret22Moreno23Almeida