Iceland U17 2–2 Spain U17: Result & Stats

Iceland U17

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spain U17

11/5/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 3AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Iceland U1722%

×Draw19%

Spain U1759%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U17Expected goals in this matchSpain U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.44

Iceland U17

1.46

Spain U17

2.44

Spain U17 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

2.88

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Iceland U17

1.42

Spain U17

2.88

allows per match

Iceland U17

2.00

Spain U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U17+0.00on par

Spain U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U17 ↓

Spain U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Iceland U17 or draw

41%

Iceland U17 or Spain U17

81%

Draw or Spain U17

78%

Winning margin

Iceland U17 wins by 2+

10%

Spain U17 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Iceland U17 1+ goals

77%

Iceland U17 2+ goals

43%

Iceland U17 3+ goals

18%

Spain U17 1+ goals

91%

Spain U17 2+ goals

70%

Spain U17 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Iceland U17 (draw refunded)

28%

Spain U17 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U17 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Spain U17 away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U17 attack 1.42 + Spain U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Spain U17 attack 2.88 + Iceland U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Iceland U17 scores more

22%

level

19%

Spain U17 scores more

59%

Spain U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spain U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff