Iceland U17 vs Estonia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Iceland U1763%
Estonia U1719%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Iceland U17 creates 87% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Iceland U17 ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Iceland U17 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches
Estonia U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.64 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Iceland U17 attack 1.42 + Estonia U17 defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.53
Estonia U17 attack 0.71 + Iceland U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Iceland U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Iceland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Iceland U17 substitutes
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Iceland U17 host Estonia U17 on Monday, 25 October 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Iceland U17 1–2 Estonia U17
Estonia U17 beat Iceland U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 25, 2021.
Goals: C. Campbell (10'), K. Mustmaa (43'), E. Dikajev (47').
The match was played at Bicskei Sportpálya in Bicske.