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Icasa vs Tirol/CEFAT — Cearense - 2 2019

Icasa
Icasa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tirol/CEFAT
Tirol/CEFAT
2/25/2024Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Mauro Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Icasa50%
×Draw26%
Tirol/CEFAT23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Icasa
1.47
Tirol/CEFAT
0.90

Icasa creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Icasa
1.82
Tirol/CEFAT
0.94

allows per match

Icasa
0.85
Tirol/CEFAT
1.12

finishing

Icasa+0.00on par
Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Icasa ↓

Tirol/CEFAT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Icasa or draw
77%
Icasa or Tirol/CEFAT
74%
Draw or Tirol/CEFAT
50%

Winning margin

Icasa wins by 2+
25%
Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Icasa 1+ goals
77%
Icasa 2+ goals
43%
Icasa 3+ goals
18%
Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals
59%
Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals
23%
Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Icasa (draw refunded)
69%
Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Icasa at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Tirol/CEFAT away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Icasa attack 1.82 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tirol/CEFAT attack 0.94 + Icasa defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Icasa scores more
50%
level
26%
Tirol/CEFAT scores more
23%

Icasa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Icasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Icasa vs Tirol/CEFAT

Icasa beat Tirol/CEFAT 3-1 in Cearense - 2 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mauro Sampaio in Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará.