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Icasa vs Guarani De Juazeiro — Cearense - 2 2025

Icasa
Icasa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
2/27/2025Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Mauro Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Icasa53%
×Draw26%
Guarani De Juazeiro21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Icasa
1.50
Guarani De Juazeiro
0.82

Icasa creates 83% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Icasa
1.56
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.07

allows per match

Icasa
0.56
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.43

finishing

Icasa+0.00on par
Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Icasa ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Icasa or draw
79%
Icasa or Guarani De Juazeiro
74%
Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro
47%

Winning margin

Icasa wins by 2+
27%
Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Icasa 1+ goals
78%
Icasa 2+ goals
44%
Icasa 3+ goals
19%
Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
56%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
20%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Icasa (draw refunded)
72%
Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Icasa at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Icasa attack 1.56 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.07 + Icasa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Icasa scores more
53%
level
26%
Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
21%

Icasa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Icasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Icasa 0–0 Guarani De Juazeiro

Icasa and Guarani De Juazeiro drew 0-0 in Cearense - 2 on February 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Mauro Sampaio in Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará.