IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4–1 Valur Reykjavik

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Valur Reykjavik

H. Ragnarsson 82'

E. Bwomono 73'

S. Hjaltested 18'

A. Hilmarsson 13'

P. Pedersen 90' (pen)

8/17/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 19Hásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar42%

×Draw24%

Valur Reykjavik35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IBV VestmannaeyjarExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.48

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.64

Valur Reykjavik

1.48

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

1.45

creates per match

1.50

1.45

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.45

Valur Reykjavik

1.50

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.45

Valur Reykjavik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw

65%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Valur Reykjavik

76%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

58%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

21%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

81%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

49%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

23%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

77%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

43%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

54%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.45 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.50 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

42%

level

24%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

35%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Hilmarsson

14'

P. Pedersen

18'

S. Hjaltested↳ V. Valor

21'

H. Ragnarsson

25'

A. Hilmarsson

29'

S. Larusson

71'

A. Skoglund← T. Haraldsson

71'

M. Lundemo← L. Heimisson

71'

A. Palsson← S. Larusson

72'

E. Bwomono← B. Hlynsson

73'

E. Bwomono↳ V. Valor

82'

H. Ragnarsson↳ O. Heidarsson

86'

N. Nokkvason← A. Hilmarsson

86'

A. Gunnarsson← O. Heidarsson

86'

J. Palsson← B. Antonsson

86'

A. Hoti← M. Nakkim

90+1'

V. Thorvardarson← S. Hjaltested

90+1'

E. Gautason← H. Ragnarsson

90'

P. PedersenPenalty

IBV

Valur

25

Agustsson

17

▼

Heimisson

11

▼

Larusson

6

▼

15

10

8

4

▼

Nakkim

9

⚽

Pedersen

20

Omarsson

12

▼

Haraldsso

1

Zapytowsk

21

▼

45

5

23

30

A

Valor

6

Tomic

25

⚽

▼

Hilmarsso

10

⚽

▼

Hjalteste

22

A

▼

Heidarsso

24

⚽

▼

Ragnarsso

Manager: Þorlákur Már Arnason

72'▲E. Bwomono←▼B. Hlynsson

86'▲N. Nokkvason←▼A. Hilmarsson

86'▲A. Gunnarsson←▼O. Heidarsson

90+1'▲V. Thorvardarson←▼S. Hjaltested

90+1'▲E. Gautason←▼H. Ragnarsson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

31Arnarsson4Nokkvason7Pettersen11Thorvardarson14Gunnarsson17Gautason28Erlingsson42Bwomono

Manager: Srdjan Tufegdzic

71'▲A. Skoglund←▼T. Haraldsson

71'▲M. Lundemo←▼L. Heimisson

71'▲A. Palsson←▼S. Larusson

86'▲J. Palsson←▼B. Antonsson

86'▲A. Hoti←▼M. Nakkim

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

1Kristinsson5Heimisson13Kristjansson14Skoglund16Stefansson21Palsson22Lundemo23Palsson33Hoti