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IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Tindastóll — Cup 2019

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
6/23/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsHásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar65%
×Draw16%
Tindastóll19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.11
Tindastóll
1.67

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.89
Tindastóll
2.33

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Tindastóll
3.33

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw
81%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Tindastóll
84%
Draw or Tindastóll
35%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
46%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
95%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
81%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
58%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
81%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
50%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
78%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 2.89 + Tindastóll defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.11

Tindastóll attack 2.33 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
65%
level
16%
Tindastóll scores more
19%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Tindastóll

IBV Vestmannaeyjar beat Tindastóll 7-0 in Cup on June 23, 2020.

The match was played at Hásteinsvöllur in Vestmannaeyjar.