IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fram Reykjavik

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Preview

14:00

Fram Reykjavik

8/1/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 17Hasteinsvollur

44%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

model favours

44%23%33%

Both teams score in 92% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

65%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar44%

×Draw23%

Fram Reykjavik33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IBV VestmannaeyjarExpected goals in this matchFram Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.52

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.77

Fram Reykjavik

1.52

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.45

creates per match

1.59

1.45

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.45

Fram Reykjavik

1.59

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.45

Fram Reykjavik

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Fram Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw

67%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Fram Reykjavik

77%

Draw or Fram Reykjavik

56%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

23%

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

83%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

53%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

26%

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

78%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

45%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

57%

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.45 + Fram Reykjavik defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fram Reykjavik attack 1.59 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

44%

level

23%

Fram Reykjavik scores more

33%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

67% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Their last 3 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Vestmannaeyjar

LWDWW

Reykjavik

WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff